On November 9, the whole world was amazed by the result of US presidential election. Donald Trump whose career is real estate and also his father was a real estate tycoon won the election for the 45th president of US over Hillary Clinton. This stunning result made America unforeseeable because US has never before had a president with no political or military experience. Trump’s attitudes have made the world in wonder how he would be able to lead the world largest and strongest country going forward.
Myanmar, as a developing country, needs a lot of opportunities and investments on business from well developed countries, of course, including United States of America. As Hillary Clinton and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi are known to be very close each other personally, and Hillary visited Myanmar many times before. Moreover, her husband, the former U.S president Bill Clinton was one of the classmates of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi while she studied in the university. Besides, Hillary Clinton is the candidate from Democratic Party, and most Myanmar people were supporting her to win the election. We were hoping if she would win, it would be the great opportunity for Myanmar to communicate with USA.
In 2013, the US became the first ASEAN dialogue partner to establish a permanent mission to the organization. Obama hosted the first US_ASEAN summit on American soil. Obama also helped to cement bilateral ties with most countries in the region, visiting nine out of 10 including Myanmar. As Trump would be likely to focus overwhelmingly on domestic issues, at the expense of America’s strategic interest abroad, we have to watch if all these saturations would be stable or not. Economic ties are also likely to suffer. If the US-ASEAN Connect initiative, which Obama had proposed at the summit earlier this year and which led to boost America’s engagement with the regional grouping would be no more effective under Trump going forward. The strategic rebalancing towards Asia that Obama worked so hard to advance may be thrown into reverse and dealing a heavy blow to Asia and the US alike. But other observers foresee that Trump, as a real estate mogul, may seek to negotiate changes to the agreement once he takes office in January, and then he will claim a victory if a new version is passed.
Our State Counselor, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, who is also the Chairperson of National League for Democracy, recently visited the US after her party took power in March, and she met with current President Obama and discussed many things about US and Myanmar. Obama promised her that he will end economic sanctions in the near future because of Myanmar’s progress in establishing democracy. I think removal of American sanctions would benefit our country’s economy by stimulating the growth of small business and even as wealthy individuals and companies blacklisted also stand to benefit. That will help American companies to invest, bringing capital, technology and better business experiences to our country. Meanwhile, it would be able to reduce China’s influence while bolstering the economy. This is a good potential for Myanmar. However, it is hard to tell all these situations would be stable or not after Trump becomes the US President. Well, if Obama’s promises would be still effective under Trump’s administration, Trump might be able to know how to cooperate with Myanmar in a benefit way in the future as he was a successful businessman before. According to the facts that Myanmar and Russia has strong bilateral relations, Myanmar is the neighbor country of China and Trump and Russia President seemed they have good social relations and Trump’s policies upon China, those may lead to a good potential communication between Myanmar and USA.
Nonetheless, some think Myanmar is insulated from the risks of Trump’s but it is hard to tell by now. It was obvious that the stock market and currency price are increasing in rate over the world just after a day when he becomes the president-elect. World’s gold price was also dramatically high upon this election. Most Asian emerging markets rose in these days. So, I believe those are the consequences of Trump’s winning. However, let us imagine what if many foreign countries would fail to increase the trade with US due to Trump’s protectionism? Then, foreign countries would emphasize to increase the investments onto the emerging countries including Myanmar which warmly welcomes foreign investments. That might lead to greater condition in the real estate market in Myanmar.
So now, people are also concentrating on president-elect’s new business policies. Economists fear that moves to protect national markets through tariffs or other barriers risk kicking off a global cycle of measures that would reduce international trade. Even Obama said that during a meeting with Trump at the White House several days ago, he had told the president-elect that his actions can move markets, tanks and public sentiment. In truth, it’s impossible to predict how the markets would settle into a Trump presidency, despite the speculation on all sides. Either way, I think that the emerging markets and all lower-income countries including Myanmar would be transformed dramatically under Trump’s administration. As Trump assured that he will make America great again, all we can do right now is sitting back and watching what is going to change under his presidency. I would definitely report the effect of Trump regime as soon as it is observed in real estate market here in Myanmar.
Trump’s winning election affect Myanmar property market?
